Author: Editorial Board (Editorial Board)

Some analysts are predicting that Vietnam will soon file a complaint against China under the U.N. Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS) dispute settlement mechanism regarding China’s actions in the South China Sea. For Lawfare, Peter Dutton wrote that because “Vietnam knows it cannot prevail in a standoff with China, international litigation may be an increasingly attractive option to alter trends that are not currently working in Vietnam’s favor.” What would Vietnam gain from bringing suit? Dutton’s answer is “clarity over its legal rights to resources in the region,” leverage to prevent China from interfering with its exploration in Vietnam’s claimed Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and increased “costs to Beijing of its intransigence.” These are reasonable expectations. But the legal obstacles and political blowback could be significant. In addition to potential benefits, Vietnam should also consider what it can lose and ask: is it worth the risk?

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The South China Sea is where the rubber meets the road for U.S.-Vietnam security ties, and in this regard, Hanoi has gone as far as it is comfortable.

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Vietnam and China have sparred over competing claims in the South China Sea for nearly 50 years. But for the first time, in November 2019, Vietnamese officials publicly issued threats to initiate international legal proceedings against China—similar to the Philippine case that ended in 2016. Since November, there have been further indications that the Vietnamese government is quite serious, despite the limited success enjoyed by the Philippines when it invoked the law. In this post, I will address two questions on this issue: What motivates the Vietnamese government to consider this step at this time? And what can Vietnam gain?

Another source of tension between the US and China is the disputed South China Sea. Washington has described Beijing's claims to the whole area as unlawful. Vietnam has now welcomed that move.